dc.contributor.author |
Williams, BG
|
en_US |
dc.contributor.author |
Gouws, E
|
en_US |
dc.contributor.author |
Karim, SSA
|
en_US |
dc.date.accessioned |
2007-03-14T08:03:12Z |
en_US |
dc.date.accessioned |
2007-06-07T10:09:53Z |
|
dc.date.available |
2007-03-14T08:03:12Z |
en_US |
dc.date.available |
2007-06-07T10:09:53Z |
|
dc.date.issued |
2000-06 |
en_US |
dc.identifier.citation |
Williams, BG, et al. 2000. Where are we now? Where are we going? The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa. South African Journal of Science, vol. 96(6), pp 351-359 |
en_US |
dc.identifier.issn |
0038-2353 |
en_US |
dc.identifier.uri |
http://hdl.handle.net/10204/1917
|
en_US |
dc.identifier.uri |
http://hdl.handle.net/10204/1917
|
|
dc.description.abstract |
This article covers many aspects of the epidemic of HIV/AIDS in South Africa. They range from the development of vaccine to the behaviour of adolescents. But they also show that authors have failed so far to have a significant impact on the course of epidemic. It is hoped that in the next 10 years this is to be changed and the intervention will significantly reduce transmission. But without detailed information concerning the future course and demographic impact of the epidemic, it will be difficult to plan our response and manage interventions such that they have the greatest possible influence. The authors need to understand how the demand for health services will change, how the productivity of labour will decline, how the dependency ratio will change and how this will affect social services. Various demographic forecasting models have been constructed, of which the Doyle model is probably the most widely appreciated. Several other models have been developed and used to make predictions concerning the future course of the epidemic. Two particularly useful source documents are the HIV/AIDS and Human Development Report and the National STD/HIV/AIDS review compiled by the South African Medical Research Council. However, few demographic models have been in peer-reviewed journals and the need for more extensive modelling work remains urgent. In this commentary authors consider what they know about the epidemic in South Africa, discuss what is needed to make reliable forecasts of its future course and effects given different kinds and levels of response, and discuss how such modelling activities should proceed. |
en_US |
dc.format.extent |
1264377 bytes |
en_US |
dc.format.mimetype |
application/pdf |
en_US |
dc.language.iso |
en |
en_US |
dc.publisher |
Bureau Scientific Publications |
en_US |
dc.rights |
Copyright: 2000 Bureau Scientific Publications |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Demographic impacts |
en_US |
dc.subject |
HIV/AIDS |
en_US |
dc.title |
Where are we now? Where are we going? The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa |
en_US |
dc.type |
Article |
en_US |
dc.identifier.apacitation |
Williams, B., Gouws, E., & Karim, S. (2000). Where are we now? Where are we going? The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/1917 |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.chicagocitation |
Williams, BG, E Gouws, and SSA Karim "Where are we now? Where are we going? The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa." (2000) http://hdl.handle.net/10204/1917 |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.vancouvercitation |
Williams B, Gouws E, Karim S. Where are we now? Where are we going? The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa. 2000; http://hdl.handle.net/10204/1917. |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.ris |
TY - Article
AU - Williams, BG
AU - Gouws, E
AU - Karim, SSA
AB - This article covers many aspects of the epidemic of HIV/AIDS in South Africa. They range from the development of vaccine to the behaviour of adolescents. But they also show that authors have failed so far to have a significant impact on the course of epidemic. It is hoped that in the next 10 years this is to be changed and the intervention will significantly reduce transmission. But without detailed information concerning the future course and demographic impact of the epidemic, it will be difficult to plan our response and manage interventions such that they have the greatest possible influence. The authors need to understand how the demand for health services will change, how the productivity of labour will decline, how the dependency ratio will change and how this will affect social services. Various demographic forecasting models have been constructed, of which the Doyle model is probably the most widely appreciated. Several other models have been developed and used to make predictions concerning the future course of the epidemic. Two particularly useful source documents are the HIV/AIDS and Human Development Report and the National STD/HIV/AIDS review compiled by the South African Medical Research Council. However, few demographic models have been in peer-reviewed journals and the need for more extensive modelling work remains urgent. In this commentary authors consider what they know about the epidemic in South Africa, discuss what is needed to make reliable forecasts of its future course and effects given different kinds and levels of response, and discuss how such modelling activities should proceed.
DA - 2000-06
DB - ResearchSpace
DP - CSIR
KW - Demographic impacts
KW - HIV/AIDS
LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za
PY - 2000
SM - 0038-2353
T1 - Where are we now? Where are we going? The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa
TI - Where are we now? Where are we going? The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/1917
ER -
|
en_ZA |