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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10204/1917

Title: Where are we now? Where are we going? The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa
Authors: Williams, BG
Gouws, E
Karim, SSA
Keywords: Demographic impacts
HIV/AIDS
Issue Date: Jun-2000
Publisher: Bureau Scientific Publications
Citation: Williams, BG, et al. 2000. Where are we now? Where are we going? The demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa. South African Journal of Science, vol. 96(6), pp 351-359
Abstract: This article covers many aspects of the epidemic of HIV/AIDS in South Africa. They range from the development of vaccine to the behaviour of adolescents. But they also show that authors have failed so far to have a significant impact on the course of epidemic. It is hoped that in the next 10 years this is to be changed and the intervention will significantly reduce transmission. But without detailed information concerning the future course and demographic impact of the epidemic, it will be difficult to plan our response and manage interventions such that they have the greatest possible influence. The authors need to understand how the demand for health services will change, how the productivity of labour will decline, how the dependency ratio will change and how this will affect social services. Various demographic forecasting models have been constructed, of which the Doyle model is probably the most widely appreciated. Several other models have been developed and used to make predictions concerning the future course of the epidemic. Two particularly useful source documents are the HIV/AIDS and Human Development Report and the National STD/HIV/AIDS review compiled by the South African Medical Research Council. However, few demographic models have been in peer-reviewed journals and the need for more extensive modelling work remains urgent. In this commentary authors consider what they know about the epidemic in South Africa, discuss what is needed to make reliable forecasts of its future course and effects given different kinds and levels of response, and discuss how such modelling activities should proceed.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10204/1917
http://hdl.handle.net/10204/1917
ISSN: 0038-2353
Appears in Collections:Water resources and human health
Mining and geoscience
General science, engineering & technology
General research interest

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