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dc.contributor.author Landman, WA
dc.contributor.author DeWitt, D
dc.contributor.author Beraki, Asmerom F
dc.date.accessioned 2012-04-18T14:17:58Z
dc.date.available 2012-04-18T14:17:58Z
dc.date.issued 2011-01
dc.identifier.citation Landman, WA, DeWitt, D and Beraki, A.F. 2011. South African mid-summer seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Clivar exchanges, vol. 16(1), pp 3-6 en_US
dc.identifier.issn 1026-0471
dc.identifier.uri http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/177159/1/EXCH55_VAMOS.pdf
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5792
dc.description Copyright: 2011 The authors. en_US
dc.description.abstract Estimation of the evolution of SST anomalies, which are often relatively predictable, and subsequently employing them in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), provides means of generating forecasts of seasonal-average weather (Graham et al. 2000; Goddard and Mason, 2002). Such a so-called two-tiered procedure to predict the outcome of the rainfall season has been employed in South Africa for a number of years already (e.g., Landman et al., 2001). The advent of fully coupled ocean-atmosphere models (e.g. Stockdale et al, 1998), or one-tiered systems, promised improved seasonal forecasts since in theory coupled models should eventually outperform two-tiered systems because the former is able to describe the feedback between ocean and atmosphere while the latter assumes that the atmosphere responds to SST but does not in turn affect the oceans (Copsey et al., 2006). This notion will be tested here by comparing the seasonal rainfall forecast performance over the mid-summer season of December to February (DJF) of a two-tiered system with forecasts from a fully coupled system. For both the two-tiered and fully coupled systems the same AGCM will be used. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher International CLIVAR Project Office en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries Workflow;8574
dc.subject Seasonal forecasting en_US
dc.subject Climate en_US
dc.subject Atmospheric general circulation models en_US
dc.subject AGCMs en_US
dc.subject Rainfall season en_US
dc.subject Rainfall predication en_US
dc.subject Ocean-atmosphere model en_US
dc.subject Seasonal prediction en_US
dc.title South African mid-summer seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model en_US
dc.type Article en_US


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