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Show simple item record Wright, Jarrad G Bischof-Niemz, Sebastian T Calitz, Joanne R Mushwana, Crescent 2018-03-02T10:08:34Z 2018-03-02T10:08:34Z 2017-11
dc.identifier.citation Wright, J.G. et al. 2017. Future wind deployment scenarios for South Africa. WindAc, Cape Town, 14-16 November 2017 en_US
dc.description Paper presented at WindAc, Cape Town, 14-16 November 2017 en_US
dc.description.abstract South Africa has historically had a predominantly coal based energy system and a particularly coal dominated electricity system due to a large domestic coal resource and favourable coal generation technology economics. A more recently well understood wind (and solar) resource in South Africa combined with large geographical land-area and technology cost reductions globally and domestically for wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) has made these technologies more than competitive with alternatives. As a result, wind (and solar PV) have significant roles to play in the future South African electricity system. The potential role of wind in particular is quantified in this research where a least-cost scenario-based electricity sector capacity expansion planning exercise is undertaken. The results of this show that a considerable deployment of wind into the future should be expected where in least-cost scenarios ˜15-25 GW of installed wind capacity by 2030 (˜10-20% of the energy mix), ˜40-60 GW by 2040 (˜20-40% of the energy mix) and ˜60-85 GW by 2050 (45-50% of the energy mix) is cost-optimal. By 2050, least-cost scenarios are 5-12% cheaper than Business-as-usual scenarios, emit 55-60% less CO2 and use 55-60% less water. Regardless of scenario, results show a consistent and growing build-out of wind capacity to 2050 in South Africa revealing that it is cost-optimal to deploy wind capacity at the rate of at least 0.8-1.0 GW/yr to 2030 and 3-4 GW/yr therafter to 2050. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries Worklist;19823
dc.subject Least-cost en_US
dc.subject Electricity sector en_US
dc.subject Capacity expansion planning en_US
dc.subject Renewable energy en_US
dc.subject Wind en_US
dc.title Future wind deployment scenarios for South Africa en_US
dc.type Presentation en_US

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