Forecasts of a Global Coupled Model for austral summer with a 1 month lead are downscaled to end-of-season maize yields and accumulated streamflow over the Limpopo Province and adjacent districts in northeastern South Africa through application of an MOS (Model Output Statistics) approach applied over a 28 year period. Promising results, based on the hindcasts of the Global Models and historically observed yield and streamflow data, suggest potential for a commodity-orientated forecast system for application in agriculture in an operational environment. It also serves as a baseline study for inclusion of sophisticated crop or runoff models using GCM output data towards estimating potential yields and streamflows in the region.
Reference:
Malherbe, J, Landman, W.A, Olivier, C, Sakuma, H and Luo, J-J. 2014. Seasonal forecasts of the SINTEX-F coupled model applied to maize yield and streamflow estimates over north-eastern South Africa. Meteorological Applications, vol. 21(3), pp 733-742
Malherbe, J., Landman, W., Olivier, C., Sakuma, H., & Luo, J. (2014). Seasonal forecasts of the SINTEX-F coupled model applied to maize yield and streamflow estimates over north-eastern South Africa. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/7628
Malherbe, Johan, WA Landman, C Olivier, H Sakuma, and J-J Luo "Seasonal forecasts of the SINTEX-F coupled model applied to maize yield and streamflow estimates over north-eastern South Africa." (2014) http://hdl.handle.net/10204/7628
Malherbe J, Landman W, Olivier C, Sakuma H, Luo J. Seasonal forecasts of the SINTEX-F coupled model applied to maize yield and streamflow estimates over north-eastern South Africa. 2014; http://hdl.handle.net/10204/7628.
Copyright: 2014 Royal Meteorological Society. This is an ABSTRACT ONLY. The definitive version is published in Meteorological Applications, vol 21(3), pp 733-742
Author:Kim, S; Das, Sonali; Chen, M-H; Warren, NDate:Mar 2008Motivated by a large multilevel survey conducted by the US Veterans Health Administration (VHA), we propose a structural equations model which involves a set of latent variables to capture dependence between different responses, a set of ...Read more
Author:Landman, WA; Engelbrecht, F; Landman, SDate:Oct 2010In order to produce a weather forecast, the initial state of the atmosphere needs to be entered into the forecast model taking into account factors such as temperature, wind and moisture. However, the scale of some atmospheric motions is far ...Read more
Author:Landman, WA; Beraki, Asmerom FDate:Feb 2012Southern African December-January-February (DJF) probabilistic rainfall forecast skill is assessed over a 22-year retroactive test period (1980/1981 to 2001/2002) by considering multi-model ensembles consisting of downscaled forecasts from ...Read more