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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10204/751

Title: Uncle Tony's computer: order-of-magnitude modelling as a screening tool in environmental analysis
Authors: Scholes, RJ
Keywords: Environmental analysis
Uncle Tony's computer
Screening tools
Order of magnitude
Issue Date: Sep-2002
Publisher: Academy of Science of South Africa
Citation: Scholes, RJ. 2002. Uncle Tony's computer: order-of-magnitude modelling as a screening tool in environmental analysis. South African Journal of Science, vol. 98, 10 September, pp 494-496
Abstract: This paper describes a simple, quick, non data-intensive quantitative approach for sorting certain types of environmental issues into those that are unlikely to be problems; those likely to be problems; and those requiring further, more detailed investigation. It applies to situations where the impact results from an altered input to a system, for instance of a pollutant, or an altered output, for instance a harvest. It is based on a rough (order-of-magnitude) estimation of the degree to which a proposed action is likely to perturb the throughput of a given system. If the perturbation is an order of magnitude or smaller than the throughput, it is deemed unlikely to affect the ecology of that system in a material way. If larger than the throughput, it is very likely to have a substantial effect on the functioning of the system. If somewhere between the two limits, the problem requires further study. The method assumes a good, but not highly quantitative, knowledge of the system, and does not apply to cumulative effects.
Description: Copyright: 2002 Academy of Science of South Africa
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10204/751
ISSN: 0038-2353
Appears in Collections:Environmental management
General science, engineering & technology

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