Tropical systems from the southwest Indian Ocean making landfall over the Limpopo River Basin, southern Africa: a historical perspective

Abstract

The study provides perspective on the contribution of landfalling tropical systems (cyclones, depressions, storms and lows) from the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) towards rainfall over the eastern interior of southern Africa, over the period 1948–2008. Although these systems contribute to <10% of the annual rainfall occurring over the region, their relative contribution to local and widespread heavy rainfall events is shown to be highly significant. About 50% of widespread heavy rainfall events over northeastern South Africa are caused by landfalling tropical systems. Fourier analysis performed on the time series of rainfall occurring over northeastern South Africa in association with these systems reveals the existence of a quasi-18-year cycle. The cycle coincides with the well-known quasi-18-year Dyer–Tyson cycle in rainfall over the summer rainfall region of South Africa. These results suggest that atmospheric and surface conditions leading to wet phases of the Dyer–Tyson cycle also favour the landfall and subsequent westward movement of tropical systems from the SWIO over southern Africa – and their eventual contribution to rainfall over northeastern South Africa and southern Zimbabwe.