ResearchSpace
→
Browsing by Subject

Browsing by Subject "Seasonal forecasting"

Now showing items 1-16 of 16

Assessment of GloSea4 seasonal forecasts for SADC and the global oceans

Author: Landman, WA ; Graham, R ; Knight, J ; Engelbrecht, C ; Olivier, C Date: Oct 2012 The main objective of this research is to demonstrate the skill of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre’s coupled global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea4, as a seasonal forecasting tool for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and ... Read more
Atmospheric modelling for seasonal prediction at the CSIR

Author: Landman, WA ; Engelbrecht, FA ; McGregor, JL ; van der Merwe, JH Date: Oct 2014 Three aspects of seasonal forecast modelling when using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are presented in this paper. The first aspect deals with the verification of simulations created by forcing the AGCM at its lower boundary ... Read more
Dynamical seasonal climate prediction using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model developed in partnership between South Africa and the IRI

Author: Beraki, Asmerom F ; De Witt, DG ; Landman, WA ; Olivier, C Date: Feb 2014 The recent increase in availability of high-performance computing (HPC) resources in South Africa allowed the development of an ocean–atmosphere coupled general circulation model (OAGCM). The ECHAM4.5-South African Weather Service (SAWS) ... Read more
ENSO forecasts in South Africa

Author: Landman, WA ; Beraki, Asmerom F Date: Nov 2015 The SST prediction systems currently being used at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and the South African Weather Service (SAWS) are presented. In particular, the skill of these systems to predict Niño3.4 SST and how ... Read more
The high-resolution global SST forecast set of the CSIR

Author: Landman, WA ; DeWitt, DG ; Lee, D-E Date: Sep 2011 The evolution of global sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies over several months ahead is often relatively predictable. Subsequently employing predicted SST in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) can provide means of generating ... Read more
The impact of different sea-surface temperature prediction scenarios on Southern African seasonal climate forecast skill

Author: Landman, WA ; Beraki, Asmerom F ; DeWitt, D Date: Dec 2009 Retro-active forecasts produced at a 1-month lead-time by the ECHAM4.5 AGCM are statistically downscaled to South African district rainfall totals for the austral mid-summer season of December to February. The AGCM is forced with SST forecasts ... Read more
Multi-model forecast skill for mid-summer rainfall over southern Africa

Author: Landman, WA ; Beraki, Asmerom F Date: Feb 2012 Southern African December-January-February (DJF) probabilistic rainfall forecast skill is assessed over a 22-year retroactive test period (1980/1981 to 2001/2002) by considering multi-model ensembles consisting of downscaled forecasts from ... Read more
On the comparison between seasonal predictive skill of global circulation models: Coupled versus uncoupled

Author: Beraki, Asmerom F ; Landman, WA ; DeWitt, D Date: Nov 2015 The study compares one- and two-tiered forecasting systems as represented by the South African Weather Service Coupled Model and its atmosphere-only version. In this comparative framework, the main difference between these global climate ... Read more
One-tiered vs. two-tiered forecasting of South African seasonal rainfall

Author: Landman, WA ; DeWitt, D ; Lotter, D Date: Sep 2010 The predictability of South African summer rainfall is investigated using coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Read more
Recent advances in operational seasonal forecasting in South Africa: Models, infrastructure and networks

Author: Landman, WA ; Beraki, Asmerom F Date: Nov 2011 The various institutions involved with seasonal forecast development and production are discussed. New modelling approaches and the establishment of infrastructures to improve forecast dissemination are discussed. Read more
Reservoir Management using seasonal forecasts in Lake Kariba and Lake Kahora Bassa: Initial results and plans

Author: Muchuru, S ; Landman, WA Date: Jun 2012 Seasonal forecasting as a tool to improve on reservoir management in Zimbabwe is presented. The focus of the talk is on predicting rainfall extremes over the Lake Kariba catchments. The forecast systems to do the predictions and the levels ... Read more
Seasonal precipitation forecast skill over Iran

Author: Shirvani, A ; Landman, WA Date: Jul 2015 This paper examines the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts over Iran using one two-tiered model, three National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models, and two coupled ocean–atmosphere or one-tiered models. These models are, respectively, ... Read more
Seasonal prediction for Southern Africa: Maximising the skill from forecast systems

Author: Landman, WA Date: Jun 2012 The development of seasonal forecast systems for southern Africa is presented, followed by the justification why certain model configurations have been selected in order to optimise seasonal forecast performance. The skill of the HadGEM3 ... Read more
Seasonal rainfall prediction skill over South Africa: one- versus two-tiered forecasting systems

Author: Landman, WA ; Dewitt, D ; Lee, D-E ; Beraki, Asmerom F ; Lotter, D Date: Apr 2012 Forecast performance by coupled ocean–atmosphere or one-tiered models predicting seasonal rainfall totals over South Africa is compared with forecasts produced by computationally less demanding two-tiered systems where prescribed sea surface ... Read more
South African mid-summer seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

Author: Landman, WA ; DeWitt, D ; Beraki, Asmerom F Date: Jan 2011 Estimation of the evolution of SST anomalies, which are often relatively predictable, and subsequently employing them in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), provides means of generating forecasts of seasonal-average weather (Graham ... Read more
SST prediction methodologies and verification considerations for dynamical mid-summer rainfall forecasts for South Africa

Author: Landman, WA ; Beraki, Asmerom F ; DeWitt, D ; Lötter, D Date: Oct 2014 Seasonal-to-interannual hindcasts (re-forecasts) for December-January-February (DJF) produced at a 1-month lead-time by the ECHAM4.5 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are verified after calibrating model output to DJF rainfall at ... Read more

Now showing items 1-16 of 16

Browse

All of ResearchSpace

Quick Links

Legislation and compliance

General Enquiries

Tel: + 27 12 841 2911
Email: callcentre@csir.co.za

Physical Address
Meiring Naudé Road
Brummeria
Pretoria
South Africa

Postal Address
PO Box 395
Pretoria 0001
South Africa

Social Connect

Copyright © CSIR 2017. All Rights Reserved

Resources on this site are free to download and reuse according to associated licensing provision. Please read the terms and conditions of usage of each resource.