Assessment of GloSea4 seasonal forecasts for SADC and the global oceans

Abstract

The main objective of this research is to demonstrate the skill of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre’s coupled global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea4, as a seasonal forecasting tool for the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the global oceans, with special emphasis on the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In addition, the value of including GloSea4 forecasts in ulti-model systems is tested. These investigations are conducted by testing the model’s ability to predict seasonal rainfall totals during the austral spring (SON), mid-summer (DJF) and autumn (MAM) seasons in the region, and by testing for monthly sea-surface temperature anomalies during mid-summer. The model’s ability to simulate the region’s intra-seasonal rainfall and low level circulation characteristics is investigated through self-organising maps(SOM).