Greben, JMElphinstone, CHolloway, Jennifer PDe Villiers, RIttmann, HWSchmitz, P2007-03-282007-06-072007-03-282007-06-072005-03Greben, JM, et al. 2005. Prediction of the 2004 national elections in South Africa. South African Journal of Science, vol. 101, 04 March, pp 157-1610038-2353http://hdl.handle.net/10204/2154http://hdl.handle.net/10204/2154During the last three elections in South Africa, the CSIR was involved in the prediction of the final outcome on the basis of early results. In this paper, we describe the methods used by the CSIR in these elections and comment on the success of the model used. We compare the rate of convergence of our predictions towards the final results with the convergence of the actual results. We also comment on the special challenges and time pressures faced by a research team when it uses a scientific analysis tool in a real-time context. The performance of the system is determined by its ability to deliver accurate predictions at an early stage, since interest in predictions diminishes rapidly as the outcome becomes clear. In the event, our predictions proved to be very accurate and our forecasts played a vital role in the ability of the national broadcaster to 'call' the election in the hours after the voting stations closed.126033 bytesapplication/pdfenCopyright: 2005 Acad Science South AfricaNational electionsIndependent electoral commissionIECSouth AfricaArticleGreben, J., Elphinstone, C., Holloway, J. P., De Villiers, R., Ittmann, H., & Schmitz, P. (2005). Prediction of the 2004 national elections in South Africa. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/2154Greben, JM, C Elphinstone, Jennifer P Holloway, R De Villiers, HW Ittmann, and P Schmitz "Prediction of the 2004 national elections in South Africa." (2005) http://hdl.handle.net/10204/2154Greben J, Elphinstone C, Holloway JP, De Villiers R, Ittmann H, Schmitz P. Prediction of the 2004 national elections in South Africa. 2005; http://hdl.handle.net/10204/2154.TY - Article AU - Greben, JM AU - Elphinstone, C AU - Holloway, Jennifer P AU - De Villiers, R AU - Ittmann, HW AU - Schmitz, P AB - During the last three elections in South Africa, the CSIR was involved in the prediction of the final outcome on the basis of early results. In this paper, we describe the methods used by the CSIR in these elections and comment on the success of the model used. We compare the rate of convergence of our predictions towards the final results with the convergence of the actual results. We also comment on the special challenges and time pressures faced by a research team when it uses a scientific analysis tool in a real-time context. The performance of the system is determined by its ability to deliver accurate predictions at an early stage, since interest in predictions diminishes rapidly as the outcome becomes clear. In the event, our predictions proved to be very accurate and our forecasts played a vital role in the ability of the national broadcaster to 'call' the election in the hours after the voting stations closed. DA - 2005-03 DB - ResearchSpace DP - CSIR KW - National elections KW - Independent electoral commission KW - IEC KW - South Africa LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za PY - 2005 SM - 0038-2353 T1 - Prediction of the 2004 national elections in South Africa TI - Prediction of the 2004 national elections in South Africa UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/2154 ER -