Abiodun, BJAdegoke, JAbatan, AAIbe, CAEgbebiyi, TSEngelbrecht, Francois APinto, I2017-11-012017-11-012017-08Abiodun, B.J., Adegoke, J., Abatan, A.A. et al. 2017. Potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation over four African coastal cities. Climatic Change, vol 143(3-4), pp 399–4130165-0009https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-017-2001-5#citeashttp://hdl.handle.net/10204/9703Copyright: 2017 Springer Verlag. Due to copyright restrictions, the attached PDF file only contains the abstract of the full text item. For access to the full text item, please consult the publisher's website. The definitive version of the work is published in Climatic Change, vol 143(3-4), pp 399–413This study examines the impacts of climate change on characteristics of extreme precipitation events over four African coastal cities (Cape Town, Maputo, Lagos and Port Said) under two future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Fourteen indices were used to characterise extreme precipitation and 16 multi-model simulation datasets from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were analysed. The capability of the models to reproduce past characteristics of extreme precipitation over the cities was evaluated against four satellite datasets after quantifying the observation uncertainties over the cities. The models give realistic simulation of extreme precipitation characteristics over the cities, and in most cases, the magnitudes of the simulation biases are within the observation uncertainties. For both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the models project a decrease in wet days and an increase in dry spells over the four cities in the future. More intense daily precipitation is projected over Maputo, Lagos and Port Said. The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase over Lagos, but decrease over the other cities. A decrease in annual precipitation is projected over Cape Town, Maputo and Port Said, whilst an increase is projected over Lagos, where the water surplus from the more extreme precipitation events exceeds the deficit from the less wet days. A decrease in the number of widespread extreme events is indicated over all the cities. Wet-day percentile and all-day percentile methods signal opposite future changes in the extreme precipitation thresholds over the cities (except over Lagos). The results of this study may have application in managing the vulnerabilities of these coastal cities to extreme precipitation events under climate change.enExtreme precipitationClimate changeRegional climate modelsAfrican coastal citiesArticleAbiodun, B., Adegoke, J., Abatan, A., Ibe, C., Egbebiyi, T., Engelbrecht, F. A., & Pinto, I. (2017). Potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation over four African coastal cities. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/9703Abiodun, BJ, J Adegoke, AA Abatan, CA Ibe, TS Egbebiyi, Francois A Engelbrecht, and I Pinto "Potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation over four African coastal cities." (2017) http://hdl.handle.net/10204/9703Abiodun B, Adegoke J, Abatan A, Ibe C, Egbebiyi T, Engelbrecht FA, et al. Potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation over four African coastal cities. 2017; http://hdl.handle.net/10204/9703.TY - Article AU - Abiodun, BJ AU - Adegoke, J AU - Abatan, AA AU - Ibe, CA AU - Egbebiyi, TS AU - Engelbrecht, Francois A AU - Pinto, I AB - This study examines the impacts of climate change on characteristics of extreme precipitation events over four African coastal cities (Cape Town, Maputo, Lagos and Port Said) under two future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Fourteen indices were used to characterise extreme precipitation and 16 multi-model simulation datasets from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were analysed. The capability of the models to reproduce past characteristics of extreme precipitation over the cities was evaluated against four satellite datasets after quantifying the observation uncertainties over the cities. The models give realistic simulation of extreme precipitation characteristics over the cities, and in most cases, the magnitudes of the simulation biases are within the observation uncertainties. For both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the models project a decrease in wet days and an increase in dry spells over the four cities in the future. More intense daily precipitation is projected over Maputo, Lagos and Port Said. The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase over Lagos, but decrease over the other cities. A decrease in annual precipitation is projected over Cape Town, Maputo and Port Said, whilst an increase is projected over Lagos, where the water surplus from the more extreme precipitation events exceeds the deficit from the less wet days. A decrease in the number of widespread extreme events is indicated over all the cities. Wet-day percentile and all-day percentile methods signal opposite future changes in the extreme precipitation thresholds over the cities (except over Lagos). The results of this study may have application in managing the vulnerabilities of these coastal cities to extreme precipitation events under climate change. DA - 2017-08 DB - ResearchSpace DP - CSIR KW - Extreme precipitation KW - Climate change KW - Regional climate models KW - African coastal cities LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za PY - 2017 SM - 0165-0009 T1 - Potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation over four African coastal cities TI - Potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation over four African coastal cities UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/9703 ER -