Greben, JMElphinstone, CDHolloway, Jennifer P2012-03-162012-03-162011-09Greben, JM, Elphinstone, CD and Holloway, JP. The 2011 municipal elections in South Africa and new trends since the 2009 national elections. Proceedings of the 2011 ORSSA Annual Conference, Elephant Hills Hotel, Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe, 18-21 September 2011978-0-7972-1351-7http://www.orssa.org.za/wiki/uploads/WebMeeting2012-02-27/2011ConfProcs.pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10204/5656Proceedings of the 2011 ORSSA Annual Conference, Elephant Hills Hotel, Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe, 18-21 September 2011The CSIR has been involved in South African election night predictions since 1999 using a cluster prediction model based on the segmentation of the electorate according to voting behavior. In this paper these clusters are exploited in another way. Different clusters are related to different demographic groups, and an analysis is made how these different groups change their affiliation between subsequent elections. The changes in affiliation are determined by calculating a trend matrix, a new tool in elections that was introduced by one of the authors a few years ago. By comparing trend matrices between municipal (2006, 2011) and national elections (2004 and 2009) one can establish whether the observed trends are incidental or have a more generic character. It is felt that a better understanding of the voter behavior through such analyses can enhance the value of elections and thereby promote democracy.enSouth African electionsElection predictionsCluster prediction modelsElection toolsConference PresentationGreben, J., Elphinstone, C., & Holloway, J. P. (2011). The 2011 municipal elections in South Africa and new trends since the 2009 national elections. Operations Society of South Africa. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5656Greben, JM, CD Elphinstone, and Jennifer P Holloway. "The 2011 municipal elections in South Africa and new trends since the 2009 national elections." (2011): http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5656Greben J, Elphinstone C, Holloway JP, The 2011 municipal elections in South Africa and new trends since the 2009 national elections; Operations Society of South Africa; 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5656 .TY - Conference Presentation AU - Greben, JM AU - Elphinstone, CD AU - Holloway, Jennifer P AB - The CSIR has been involved in South African election night predictions since 1999 using a cluster prediction model based on the segmentation of the electorate according to voting behavior. In this paper these clusters are exploited in another way. Different clusters are related to different demographic groups, and an analysis is made how these different groups change their affiliation between subsequent elections. The changes in affiliation are determined by calculating a trend matrix, a new tool in elections that was introduced by one of the authors a few years ago. By comparing trend matrices between municipal (2006, 2011) and national elections (2004 and 2009) one can establish whether the observed trends are incidental or have a more generic character. It is felt that a better understanding of the voter behavior through such analyses can enhance the value of elections and thereby promote democracy. DA - 2011-09 DB - ResearchSpace DP - CSIR KW - South African elections KW - Election predictions KW - Cluster prediction models KW - Election tools LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za PY - 2011 SM - 978-0-7972-1351-7 T1 - The 2011 municipal elections in South Africa and new trends since the 2009 national elections TI - The 2011 municipal elections in South Africa and new trends since the 2009 national elections UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5656 ER -