Mulovhedzi, PTRambuwani, GTBopape, MJMaisha, RMonama, Nkwe O2021-11-252021-11-252021-09Mulovhedzi, P., Rambuwani, G., Bopape, M., Maisha, R. & Monama, N.O. 2021. Model inter-comparison for short-range forecasts over the southern African domain. <i>South African Journal of Science,117(9/10).</i> http://hdl.handle.net/10204/121700038-23531996-7489https://doi.org/10.17159/sajs.2021/8581http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12170Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been increasing in skill and their capability to simulate weather systems and provide valuable information at convective scales has improved in recent years. Much effort has been put into developing NWP models across the globe. Representation of physical processes is one of the critical issues in NWP, and it differs from one model to another. We investigated the performance of three regional NWP models used by the South African Weather Service over southern Africa, to identify the model that produces the best deterministic forecasts for the study domain. The three models – Unified Model (UM), Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) – were run at a horizontal grid spacing of about 4.4 km. Model forecasts for precipitation, 2-m temperature, and wind speed were verified against different observations. Snow was evaluated against reported snow records. Both the temporal and spatial verification of the model forecasts showed that the three models are comparable, with slight variations. Temperature and wind speed forecasts were similar for the three different models. Accumulated precipitation was mostly similar, except where WRF captured small rainfall amounts from a coastal low, while it over-estimated rainfall over the ocean. The UM showed a bubble-like shape towards the tropics, while COSMO cut-off part of the rainfall band that extended from the tropics to the sub-tropics. The COSMO and WRF models simulated a larger spatial coverage of precipitation than UM and snow-report records.FulltextenNumerical Weather Prediction modelsConvective scalesSouth African Weather ServiceModel inter-comparisonArticleMulovhedzi, P., Rambuwani, G., Bopape, M., Maisha, R., & Monama, N. O. (2021). Model inter-comparison for short-range forecasts over the southern African domain. <i>South African Journal of Science,117(9/10)</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12170Mulovhedzi, PT, GT Rambuwani, MJ Bopape, R Maisha, and Nkwe O Monama "Model inter-comparison for short-range forecasts over the southern African domain." <i>South African Journal of Science,117(9/10)</i> (2021) http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12170Mulovhedzi P, Rambuwani G, Bopape M, Maisha R, Monama NO. Model inter-comparison for short-range forecasts over the southern African domain. South African Journal of Science,117(9/10). 2021; http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12170.TY - Article AU - Mulovhedzi, PT AU - Rambuwani, GT AU - Bopape, MJ AU - Maisha, R AU - Monama, Nkwe O AB - Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been increasing in skill and their capability to simulate weather systems and provide valuable information at convective scales has improved in recent years. Much effort has been put into developing NWP models across the globe. Representation of physical processes is one of the critical issues in NWP, and it differs from one model to another. We investigated the performance of three regional NWP models used by the South African Weather Service over southern Africa, to identify the model that produces the best deterministic forecasts for the study domain. The three models – Unified Model (UM), Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) – were run at a horizontal grid spacing of about 4.4 km. Model forecasts for precipitation, 2-m temperature, and wind speed were verified against different observations. Snow was evaluated against reported snow records. Both the temporal and spatial verification of the model forecasts showed that the three models are comparable, with slight variations. Temperature and wind speed forecasts were similar for the three different models. Accumulated precipitation was mostly similar, except where WRF captured small rainfall amounts from a coastal low, while it over-estimated rainfall over the ocean. The UM showed a bubble-like shape towards the tropics, while COSMO cut-off part of the rainfall band that extended from the tropics to the sub-tropics. The COSMO and WRF models simulated a larger spatial coverage of precipitation than UM and snow-report records. DA - 2021-09 DB - ResearchSpace DP - CSIR J1 - South African Journal of Science,117(9/10) KW - Numerical Weather Prediction models KW - Convective scales KW - South African Weather Service KW - Model inter-comparison LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za PY - 2021 SM - 0038-2353 SM - 1996-7489 T1 - Model inter-comparison for short-range forecasts over the southern African domain TI - Model inter-comparison for short-range forecasts over the southern African domain UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12170 ER -25112