Schreiner, GOSnyman-Van Der Walt, Luanita2017-10-162017-10-162018-06Schreiner, G.O. and Snyman-Van der Walt, L. 2018. Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo. International Journal of Sustainable Development and Planning, vol. 13(2): 294-3061743-7601https://www.witpress.com/elibrary/sdp-volumes/13/2/1902DOI: 10.2495/SDP-V13-N2-294-306http://hdl.handle.net/10204/9657This is an open access article.The scientific assessment of shale gas development was compiled by over 200 authors and peer reviewers from around the world. Novel assessment methods were used based on the concepts of risk, scenarios and predictive landscape modelling. Three development scenarios were assessed against a baseline scenario, across seventeen topic-specific chapters. Risk profiles for spatially explicit impacts in distinctive receiving environments were generated and assessed with and without mitigation. Risk was determined by simultaneously considering the consequence of an impact and its likelihood of occurrence, with topic consequence terms calibrated to ensure a degree of consistency across all topics. A landscape risk model was populated to generate a composite spatial overlay representing the cumulative evolution of the risk profile across the scenarios, representing the full life-cycle of shale gas development activities from initial exploration to final closure and site remediation. For the production-scale scenarios considered, risk ranges from very high and high before mitigation to generally moderate after mitigation, assuming that best-practice mitigation is applied and that adequate governance and institutional capacity exists to enforce it. Given the expanse of the study area (171 811 km2) and the relatively small physical surface footprint of shale gas development activities, mitigation best-practice is led through application of the mitigation hierarchy, prescribing avoidance of impacts first, largely by adjusting the exact location of wellpads, roads and other structures to not coincide with critical resources. Through effective project planning, many sensitive environments of the Central Karoo can be avoided, thus maintaining the social and ecological character and integrity of the region. From a cumulative risk perspective, modelling results suggest that shale gas development activities, at the scale expected in the large-scale gas production scenario may be near to exceeding the developmental threshold of the Central Karoo.enShale gasHydraulic fracturingScientific assessmentScenariosRiskLandscape modellingAvoidanceThresholdsArticleSchreiner, G., & Snyman-Van Der Walt, L. (2018). Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/9657Schreiner, GO, and Luanita Snyman-Van Der Walt "Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo." (2018) http://hdl.handle.net/10204/9657Schreiner G, Snyman-Van Der Walt L. Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo. 2018; http://hdl.handle.net/10204/9657.TY - Article AU - Schreiner, GO AU - Snyman-Van Der Walt, Luanita AB - The scientific assessment of shale gas development was compiled by over 200 authors and peer reviewers from around the world. Novel assessment methods were used based on the concepts of risk, scenarios and predictive landscape modelling. Three development scenarios were assessed against a baseline scenario, across seventeen topic-specific chapters. Risk profiles for spatially explicit impacts in distinctive receiving environments were generated and assessed with and without mitigation. Risk was determined by simultaneously considering the consequence of an impact and its likelihood of occurrence, with topic consequence terms calibrated to ensure a degree of consistency across all topics. A landscape risk model was populated to generate a composite spatial overlay representing the cumulative evolution of the risk profile across the scenarios, representing the full life-cycle of shale gas development activities from initial exploration to final closure and site remediation. For the production-scale scenarios considered, risk ranges from very high and high before mitigation to generally moderate after mitigation, assuming that best-practice mitigation is applied and that adequate governance and institutional capacity exists to enforce it. Given the expanse of the study area (171 811 km2) and the relatively small physical surface footprint of shale gas development activities, mitigation best-practice is led through application of the mitigation hierarchy, prescribing avoidance of impacts first, largely by adjusting the exact location of wellpads, roads and other structures to not coincide with critical resources. Through effective project planning, many sensitive environments of the Central Karoo can be avoided, thus maintaining the social and ecological character and integrity of the region. From a cumulative risk perspective, modelling results suggest that shale gas development activities, at the scale expected in the large-scale gas production scenario may be near to exceeding the developmental threshold of the Central Karoo. DA - 2018-06 DB - ResearchSpace DP - CSIR KW - Shale gas KW - Hydraulic fracturing KW - Scientific assessment KW - Scenarios KW - Risk KW - Landscape modelling KW - Avoidance KW - Thresholds LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za PY - 2018 SM - 1743-7601 T1 - Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo TI - Risk modelling of shale gas development scenarios in the Central Karoo UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/9657 ER -