Gumbo, ADKapangaziwiri, EvisonChikoore, HPienaar, Harrison H2021-08-162021-08-162021-06Gumbo, A., Kapangaziwiri, E., Chikoore, H. & Pienaar, H.H. 2021. Assessing water resources availability in headwater sub-catchments of Pungwe River Basin in a changing climate. <i>Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 35.</i> http://hdl.handle.net/10204/120802214-5818https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100827http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12080Study Region: The Pungwe River Basin, which is predominantly rural, is a transboundary river shared between Zimbabwe and Mozambique. The riparian communities along the river largely depend on the availability of streamflow for their livelihoods which are now being threatened by the effects of a changing climate. Study focus: The study assessed the effects of climate change on water resources availability in 10 selected headwater sub-catchments of the Pungwe River Basin using the Pitman hydrological model. The model was driven by 10 statistically downscaled climate models forced with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the near (2020–2060) and far (2061–2099) futures. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: The results of water resources availability varied, depending on whether the short- or long-term scenarios were modelled. 70 % of the sub-catchments predicted an increase in stream flow for the near- and far-future under the RCP 4.5 emission scenario. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, a decrease in streamflow was simulated for all sub-catchments with the decrease ranging from -4.17 % to -71.69 %. The reduction in water resources would be significant in the drier parts of the basin than in the wetter parts, which are projected to maintain approximately 90 % of current streamflow levels. Given the uncertainty in future climate simulations, it is prudent that both scenarios be regarded as probabilities. Thus, effective adaptive basin management should consider both.AbstractenClimate changeDelta changeHeadwater catchmentsPitman modelPungwe River BasinRural livelihoodsSPAtial and Time Series Information ModelSPATSIMArticleGumbo, A., Kapangaziwiri, E., Chikoore, H., & Pienaar, H. H. (2021). Assessing water resources availability in headwater sub-catchments of Pungwe River Basin in a changing climate. <i>Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 35</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12080Gumbo, AD, Evison Kapangaziwiri, H Chikoore, and Harrison H Pienaar "Assessing water resources availability in headwater sub-catchments of Pungwe River Basin in a changing climate." <i>Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 35</i> (2021) http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12080Gumbo A, Kapangaziwiri E, Chikoore H, Pienaar HH. Assessing water resources availability in headwater sub-catchments of Pungwe River Basin in a changing climate. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 35. 2021; http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12080.TY - Article AU - Gumbo, AD AU - Kapangaziwiri, Evison AU - Chikoore, H AU - Pienaar, Harrison H AB - Study Region: The Pungwe River Basin, which is predominantly rural, is a transboundary river shared between Zimbabwe and Mozambique. The riparian communities along the river largely depend on the availability of streamflow for their livelihoods which are now being threatened by the effects of a changing climate. Study focus: The study assessed the effects of climate change on water resources availability in 10 selected headwater sub-catchments of the Pungwe River Basin using the Pitman hydrological model. The model was driven by 10 statistically downscaled climate models forced with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the near (2020–2060) and far (2061–2099) futures. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: The results of water resources availability varied, depending on whether the short- or long-term scenarios were modelled. 70 % of the sub-catchments predicted an increase in stream flow for the near- and far-future under the RCP 4.5 emission scenario. Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, a decrease in streamflow was simulated for all sub-catchments with the decrease ranging from -4.17 % to -71.69 %. The reduction in water resources would be significant in the drier parts of the basin than in the wetter parts, which are projected to maintain approximately 90 % of current streamflow levels. Given the uncertainty in future climate simulations, it is prudent that both scenarios be regarded as probabilities. Thus, effective adaptive basin management should consider both. DA - 2021-06 DB - ResearchSpace DP - CSIR J1 - Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 35 KW - Climate change KW - Delta change KW - Headwater catchments KW - Pitman model KW - Pungwe River Basin KW - Rural livelihoods KW - SPAtial and Time Series Information Model KW - SPATSIM LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za PY - 2021 SM - 2214-5818 T1 - Assessing water resources availability in headwater sub-catchments of Pungwe River Basin in a changing climate TI - Assessing water resources availability in headwater sub-catchments of Pungwe River Basin in a changing climate UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12080 ER -24662