Khuluse, S2010-09-152010-09-152009-08Khuluse, S. 2009. Effect of temporal dependence and seasonality on return level estimates of excessive rainfall. 57th session of the International Statistical Institute, Durban, South Africa, 16-22 August 2009, pp 219789073592292http://hdl.handle.net/10204/435757th session of the International Statistical Institute, Durban, South Africa, 16-22 August 2009Recent concerns over the potential impact of climate change have made governments conscious of the importance of mitigation plans against the harmful effects of natural hazards. This has reinforced the undertaking of initiatives that are geared towards sustainable development. The benefit of such plans depends on understanding regional risk and vulnerability in various domains of societal interest, including water and energy resources, ecology and agriculture. The use of historical data to gain insight into the mechanism of risk events is advancement towards gaining this understanding. Methodologies provided by Extreme Value Theory (EVT) can make a contribution in understanding the mechanistic behaviour of extreme events. In this paper, the author briefly summarizes the theory of extremes, highlighting how temporal dependence and seasonality affect return level estimation through an application to rainfall data.enExtreme value theoryThreshold exceedanceGeneralized Pareto distributionReturn level estimationClimate changeEffect of temporal dependence and seasonality on return level estimates of excessive rainfallConference PresentationKhuluse, S. (2009). Effect of temporal dependence and seasonality on return level estimates of excessive rainfall. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/4357Khuluse, S. "Effect of temporal dependence and seasonality on return level estimates of excessive rainfall." (2009): http://hdl.handle.net/10204/4357Khuluse S, Effect of temporal dependence and seasonality on return level estimates of excessive rainfall; 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/4357 .TY - Conference Presentation AU - Khuluse, S AB - Recent concerns over the potential impact of climate change have made governments conscious of the importance of mitigation plans against the harmful effects of natural hazards. This has reinforced the undertaking of initiatives that are geared towards sustainable development. The benefit of such plans depends on understanding regional risk and vulnerability in various domains of societal interest, including water and energy resources, ecology and agriculture. The use of historical data to gain insight into the mechanism of risk events is advancement towards gaining this understanding. Methodologies provided by Extreme Value Theory (EVT) can make a contribution in understanding the mechanistic behaviour of extreme events. In this paper, the author briefly summarizes the theory of extremes, highlighting how temporal dependence and seasonality affect return level estimation through an application to rainfall data. DA - 2009-08 DB - ResearchSpace DP - CSIR KW - Extreme value theory KW - Threshold exceedance KW - Generalized Pareto distribution KW - Return level estimation KW - Climate change LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za PY - 2009 SM - 9789073592292 T1 - Effect of temporal dependence and seasonality on return level estimates of excessive rainfall TI - Effect of temporal dependence and seasonality on return level estimates of excessive rainfall UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/4357 ER -