Downscaled climate change projections over northeastern South Africa: Implications for streamflow

Mkhwanazi, MLandman, WAEngelbrecht, FAOlivier, C2016-05-162016-05-162015-09Mkhwanazi, M, Landman, WA, Engelbrecht, FA and Olivier, C. 2015. Downscaled climate change projections over Northeastern South Africa: Implications for streamflow. 31st Conference of the South African Society for Atmospheric Science: Applying the weather, Hennops River Valley, Centurion, South Africa, 21-22 September 2015978-0-620-67825-4http://hdl.handle.net/10204/852531st Conference of the South African Society for Atmospheric Science: Applying the weather, Hennops River Valley, Centurion, South Africa, 21-22 September 2015.The study assesses the impacts of anthropogenic forcing on seasonal streamflows over northeastern South Africa by using both dynamically and statistically downscaled multi-decadal climate change projections. The statistical model approach is to build linear links between observed present-day climate of flows and mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation and then use the developed relationships to provide guidance on future-climate streamflows. Both CCAM raw runoff (as a proxy for streamflows) and statistically downscaled streamflows indicate a decreasing trend over northeastern South Africa. Statistical analysis on simulated data is done based on four 30-year periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) from which parametric distributions are calculated and interpreted.enStreamflowPerfect prognosisClimate changeStatistical downscalingDownscaled climate change projections over northeastern South Africa: Implications for streamflowOther MaterialMkhwanazi, M., Landman, W., Engelbrecht, F., & Olivier, C. 2015. Downscaled climate change projections over northeastern South Africa: Implications for streamflow. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/8525Mkhwanazi, M, WA Landman, FA Engelbrecht, and C Olivier. 2015. Downscaled climate change projections over northeastern South Africa: Implications for streamflow. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/8525Mkhwanazi M, Landman W, Engelbrecht F, Olivier C. 2015. Downscaled climate change projections over northeastern South Africa: Implications for streamflow. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/8525TY - Other Material AU - Mkhwanazi, M AU - Landman, WA AU - Engelbrecht, FA AU - Olivier, C AB - The study assesses the impacts of anthropogenic forcing on seasonal streamflows over northeastern South Africa by using both dynamically and statistically downscaled multi-decadal climate change projections. The statistical model approach is to build linear links between observed present-day climate of flows and mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation and then use the developed relationships to provide guidance on future-climate streamflows. Both CCAM raw runoff (as a proxy for streamflows) and statistically downscaled streamflows indicate a decreasing trend over northeastern South Africa. Statistical analysis on simulated data is done based on four 30-year periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) from which parametric distributions are calculated and interpreted. DA - 2015-09 DB - ResearchSpace DP - CSIR KW - Streamflow KW - Perfect prognosis KW - Climate change KW - Statistical downscaling LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za PY - 2015 SM - 978-0-620-67825-4 T1 - Downscaled climate change projections over northeastern South Africa: Implications for streamflow TI - Downscaled climate change projections over northeastern South Africa: Implications for streamflow UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/8525 ER -