Landman, WAEngelbrecht, FAMcGregor, JLvan der Merwe, JH2015-03-122015-03-122014-10Landman, W.A, Engelbrecht, F.A, McGregor, J.L and van der Merwe, J.H. 2014. Atmospheric Modelling for Seasonal Prediction at the CSIR. In: 30th Annual Conference of South African Society for Atmospheric Sciences (SASAS), Potchefstroom, 1-2 October 2014978-0-620-62777-1http://atmres.ukzn.ac.za/SASAS%202014%20peer%20review%20conference%20proceeding.pdfhttp://hdl.handle.net/10204/7882Copyright: 2014 SASAS Proceedings. Potchefstroom, South Africa. This is the abstract of the conference proceedings. The definitive version of the work is published in SASAS Proceedings. Due to copyright restrictions, the attached PDF file only contains the abstract of the full text item. For access to the full text item, please consult the publisher's website.Three aspects of seasonal forecast modelling when using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are presented in this paper. The first aspect deals with the verification of simulations created by forcing the AGCM at its lower boundary by observed monthly sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice fields. The AGCM is the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) administered by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research. Since the model is forced with observed rather than predicted values the skill of the CCAM in simulating seasonal-to-interannual climate variability through these so-called AMIP runs is thought to provide an upper boundary of the model’s seasonal forecasting capabilities. The second aspect introduces hindcasts (or re-forecasts) made at lead-times which are the result of forcing the CCAM with predicted SST (while the sea-ice remains specified as climatological values) in order to determine how the model can be expected to perform under real-time operational conditions. Both the simulation and the hindcast runs are statistically downscaled from the horizontal resolution of the model (~200 km) to gridded seasonal rainfall and maximum temperatures at about a 50 km resolution. The focus area of the verification work is southern Africa south of 15°S for both deterministic as well as probabilistic simulations and hindcasts for the austral summer season. The third and final aspect describes the current operational forecast setting and provides the CCAM’s rainfall and maximum temperature forecasts for the coming 2014/15 summer season over SADC.enCCAMConformal-cubic atmospheric modelDownscalingHindcastsSeasonal forecastingSouth African weather serviceVerificationConference PresentationLandman, W., Engelbrecht, F., McGregor, J., & van der Merwe, J. (2014). Atmospheric modelling for seasonal prediction at the CSIR. SASAS. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/7882Landman, WA, FA Engelbrecht, JL McGregor, and JH van der Merwe. "Atmospheric modelling for seasonal prediction at the CSIR." (2014): http://hdl.handle.net/10204/7882Landman W, Engelbrecht F, McGregor J, van der Merwe J, Atmospheric modelling for seasonal prediction at the CSIR; SASAS; 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/7882 .TY - Conference Presentation AU - Landman, WA AU - Engelbrecht, FA AU - McGregor, JL AU - van der Merwe, JH AB - Three aspects of seasonal forecast modelling when using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) are presented in this paper. The first aspect deals with the verification of simulations created by forcing the AGCM at its lower boundary by observed monthly sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice fields. The AGCM is the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) administered by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research. Since the model is forced with observed rather than predicted values the skill of the CCAM in simulating seasonal-to-interannual climate variability through these so-called AMIP runs is thought to provide an upper boundary of the model’s seasonal forecasting capabilities. The second aspect introduces hindcasts (or re-forecasts) made at lead-times which are the result of forcing the CCAM with predicted SST (while the sea-ice remains specified as climatological values) in order to determine how the model can be expected to perform under real-time operational conditions. Both the simulation and the hindcast runs are statistically downscaled from the horizontal resolution of the model (~200 km) to gridded seasonal rainfall and maximum temperatures at about a 50 km resolution. The focus area of the verification work is southern Africa south of 15°S for both deterministic as well as probabilistic simulations and hindcasts for the austral summer season. The third and final aspect describes the current operational forecast setting and provides the CCAM’s rainfall and maximum temperature forecasts for the coming 2014/15 summer season over SADC. DA - 2014-10 DB - ResearchSpace DP - CSIR KW - CCAM KW - Conformal-cubic atmospheric model KW - Downscaling KW - Hindcasts KW - Seasonal forecasting KW - South African weather service KW - Verification LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za PY - 2014 SM - 978-0-620-62777-1 T1 - Atmospheric modelling for seasonal prediction at the CSIR TI - Atmospheric modelling for seasonal prediction at the CSIR UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/7882 ER -