Karsten, CarikeHolloway, Jennifer PMans, Gerbrand GBeetge, Carla2025-12-032025-12-032025-062949-8228http://hdl.handle.net/10204/14473This paper examines how different economic growth scenarios affect the success of Spatial Development Frameworks (SDFs) in shaping urban development in the Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality. Using the CSIR’s urban growth model, the study compares two scenarios: low economic growth and recovering economic growth, to assess their impact on spatial outcomes such as informal settlement growth, urban sprawl, and housing density. The findings reveal that economic growth significantly influences the effectiveness of SDFs—higher economic growth leads to better land use management, reduced informality, and more successful densification in central areas, whereas low economic growth exacerbates informal housing and sprawl.FulltextenEconomic scenariosUrban spatial planningUrban growth modellingSpatial Development FrameworksSDFsConference Presentationn/a