Book Chapters

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Browsing Book Chapters by browse.metadata.impactarea "Climate Services"

Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
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    Air quality and health
    (Health Systems Trust, 2024-02) John, Juanette; Perumal, Sarisha; Mlambo, Mfundo; Naidoo, Mogesh; Ndlovu, Noluthando; Padarath, Ashnie
    Exposure to polluted air causes millions of premature deaths each year and can lead to health risks such as reduced lung growth and function, respiratory infections and aggravated asthma. Many deaths related to air pollution occur in Asia and Africa and poor air quality places an additional burden on the health.
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    Environmental challenges to meeting sustainable development goals in Southern Africa
    (Springer, 2024-01) Mutanga, Shingirirai S; Skhosana, Felix; Mateyisi, Mohau; Thenga, Humbelani F; Naidoo, Sasha; Ramoelo, A; Nangombe, Shingirai S; Lumsden, Trevor G; Von Maltitz, GP; Midgley, GF; Veitch, J; Brümmer, C; Rötte, RP; Viehberg, FA; Veste, M
    There is an inextricable link between ecosystem integrity and the potential for achieving sustainable development goals (SDG). This chapter highlights key ecosystem threats and their drivers within the southern African regional context to emphasize the role of earth system science in supporting the achievement of regional sustainable development goals. It describes how some major anthropogenic threats have unfolded in terrestrial, aquatic and marine ecosystems of the region. Earth system science is increasingly contributing to understanding how globally driven climate and environmental changes threaten these ecosystems, and in turn how these impact people’s livelihoods. Long-term changes in rainfall variability, concomitant disruption of hydrological balances, impacts on ocean chemistry, together with more immediate impacts on the frequency and magnitude of extreme climate events are some of the critical global change drivers. While terrestrial ecosystems are already faced with encroachment by novel species, characterized by the proliferation of both invasive alien and endemic woody species, freshwater and marine ecosystems appear more immediately threatened by more local impacts, such as the accumulation of contaminants. Overall, predicted climate and environmental changes are projected to hamper development trajectories and poverty reduction efforts, and possibly exacerbate adverse impacts on human livelihoods.
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    Systems dynamics approach for modelling South Africa’s response to COVID-19: A “what if” scenario
    (2021-02) Mutanga, Shingirirai S; Ngungu, M; Tshililo, FP; Kaggwa, M
    Background: Many countries in the world are still struggling to control COVID-19 pandemic. As of April 28, 2020, South Africa reported the highest number of COVID-19 cases in Sub- Sahara Africa. The country took aggressive steps to control the spread of the virus including setting a national command team for COVID-19 and putting the country on a complete lockdown for more than 100 days. Evidence across most countries has shown that, it is vital to monitor the progression of pandemics and assess the effects of various public health measures, such as lockdowns. Countries need to have scientific tools to assist in monitoring and assessing the effectiveness of mitigation interventions. The objective of this study was thus to assess the extent to which a systems dynamics model can forecast COVID-19 infections in South Africa and be a useful tool in evaluating government interventions to manage the epidemic through 'what if' simulations. Design and Methods: This study presents a systems dynamics model (SD) of the COVID-19 infection in South Africa, as one of such tools. The development of the SD model in this study is grounded in design science research which fundamentally builds on prior research of modelling complex systems. Results: The SD model satisfactorily replicates the general trend of COVID-19 infections and recovery for South Africa within the first 100 days of the pandemic. The model further confirms that the decision to lockdown the country was a right one, otherwise the country's health capacity would have been overwhelmed. Going forward, the model predicts that the level of infection in the country will peak towards the last quarter of 2020, and thereafter start to decline. Conclusions: Ultimately, the model structure and simulations suggest that a systems dynamics model can be a useful tool in monitoring, predicting and testing interventions to manage COVID-19 with an acceptable margin of error. Moreover, the model can be developed further to include more variables as more facts on the COVID-19 emerge.
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    Uncertainty in disaster risk management: A reflection on cyclone idai using the systems thinking approach
    (Springer, 2021-07) Mutanga, Shingirirai S; Lunga, W; Mutanga, Shingirirai S; Nhamo, G; Dube, K
    The increasing frequency of disasters induced by anthropogenic and natural hazards has epitomised the complex nature of dealing with uncertainty. Cyclone Idai-induced floods in Southern Africa had a series of foreseeable and unforeseeable risks that affected vulnerable communities in Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. Thus a key question to address is what systems and mechanisms can vulnerable countries to disasters apply to effectively respond and mitigate challenges posed by disasters. The effects of Cyclone Idai during and after the disaster across the human and physical spheres of society as alluded to in this chapter highlight the need for suitable tools that can assist in unpacking the complexity of disaster management challenges. Adopting a mixed method approach, this chapter proposes systems thinking as a tool that can be applied in disaster risk reduction, taking into consideration that communities constitute intersected and intra- and interdependent subsystems. This chapter advances the need for disaster risk reduction which goes beyond linear approaches of risk management to non-linear frameworks. Essentially, the chapter applies complex systems thinking to enrich existing approaches by recognising known/knowable and unknown risks as well as the interconnectivity between policy, institutions and the society.
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    Uncertainty in disaster risk management: A reflection on cyclone Idai using the systems thinking approach
    (Springer, Cham, 2021-07) Mutanga, Shingirirai S; Lunga, W; Nhamo, G; Dube, K
    The increasing frequency of disasters induced by anthropogenic and natural hazards has epitomised the complex nature of dealing with uncertainty. Cyclone Idai-induced floods in Southern Africa had a series of foreseeable and unforeseeable risks that affected vulnerable communities in Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe. Thus a key question to address is what systems and mechanisms can vulnerable countries to disasters apply to effectively respond and mitigate challenges posed by disasters. The effects of Cyclone Idai during and after the disaster across the human and physical spheres of society as alluded to in this chapter highlight the need for suitable tools that can assist in unpacking the complexity of disaster management challenges. Adopting a mixed method approach, this chapter proposes systems thinking as a tool that can be applied in disaster risk reduction, taking into consideration that communities constitute intersected and intra- and interdependent subsystems. This chapter advances the need for disaster risk reduction which goes beyond linear approaches of risk management to non-linear frameworks. Essentially, the chapter applies complex systems thinking to enrich existing approaches by recognising known/knowable and unknown risks as well as the interconnectivity between policy, institutions and the society.