ResearchSpace

Communities in ResearchSpace

Welcome to ResearchSpace, the institutional repository of the CSIR. ResearchSpace is an open access electronic archive collecting, preserving and distributing scholarly digital materials created by the CSIR.

Recent Submissions

Item

A phenomenological methodology for wave detection in epidemics

(2025-12) Brettenny, W; Holloway, Jennifer P; Fabris-Rotelli, I; Dudeni-Tlhone, Nontembeko; Abdelatif, Nontembeko; Le Roux, Wouter J; Manjoo-Docrat, R; Debba, Pravesh

In both the management and modelling of epidemic outbreaks, the ability to determine the start of a wave of infections is of vital importance. Not only does this advantage the modelling of the outbreak, but, if done in real-time, can assist with a nation’s response to the disease. In this study, a bidirectional long-short-term-memory (Bi-LSTM) network is used to determine the start and end of the COVID-19 waves experienced in the district and metropolitan municipalities of Gauteng, South Africa, from 2020-2022 as well as the waves of the cholera outbreaks occurring in the Beira area of Mozambique between 1999 and 2005, in real-time. The problem of real-time scaling of the data prior to the first wave of an epidemic is addressed using globally available real-time information from first waves experienced in other countries and independent territories alongside the observed South African data. The use of the Bi-LSTM predicted starting dates is demonstrated for the second waves of COVID-19 infections experienced in Gauteng in 2020/21. Using the predicted starting dates, spatial-SEIR models are used to predict hospitalisations as a result of COVID-19 infections in each of the district and metropolitan municipalities of Gauteng. The fitted Bi-LSTM model demonstrates effectiveness in predicting the start and end dates of epidemic waves in real-time, allowing for pre-emptive disease modelling and predictions of spread. Moreover, it is shown that the use cases for the fitted model are not limited to COVID-19 studies, but can also be applied to other disease outbreaks that follow similar wave patterns.

Item

Scoping the progress of e-Government services in South Africa: A journey from implementation to adoption and recommendations for addressing challenges that impede or slow down progression

(2025-07) Nunu, Vuyisa; Maremi, Keneilwe J; Thulare, Tumiso

This paper explores the development of e-government services in South Africa, tracing the journey from initial adoption to implementation based on literature findings. It emphasizes the stages of e-government evolution, highlighting the key drivers that promote advancements and the challenges that impede progress. The purpose of this paper is to inform government officials and policymakers about the obstacles that negatively impact e-government initiatives. Through a scoping review, the research examines existing studies on the implementation and adoption of e-government, focusing on technological, social, and economic factors. The findings indicate significant progress in the implementation of e-government services, driven by technological advancements and policy measures. However, the adoption phase faces challenges, including issues related to the digital divide, inadequate technological infrastructure, and user resistance. The paper concludes with a set of recommendations aimed at supporting evidencebased decision-making and advancing digital transformation within the public sector. These recommendations are presented for the consideration of government authorities and policymakers to foster a more inclusive and efficient public administration.

Item

Impacts of climate change on long-term wind forecasting

(2025-10) Rapotu, Dimakatso R; Masoga, Mandla A; Karamanski, Stefan

Wind forecasting is a critical tool for understanding the long-term capacity of wind energy. As global temperatures rise due to climate change, it is essential to understand how these changes will impact future wind generation. This study presents a physics-based approach to forecasting the effects of climate change on wind energy in South Africa. The analysis leveraged five different global climate models, all using the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario, which represents a high-emission future. These climate models provided forecasted wind data from 1960 to 2100 for a specific location. This data was then used in a four-step long-term wind forecasting model. The model calculates wind energy production based on specific turbine characteristics, adjusts for air density and hub height, and then aggregates the total energy output for all turbines available at the site. The model was tested on 35 onshore wind farms in South Africa and validated using power output predictions for [2012,2016,2020,2024] using Sere and Amakhala data acquired from Renewables ninja. The results showed a Pearson correlation of 0.99 for both sites, demonstrating the high reliability of the proposed forecasting method. This approach provides a robust way to assess the long-term viability of wind energy projects under future climate conditions.

Item

Urban Air Mobility: Regulatory Pathways and Readiness for Integration in South Africa

(2025-07) Ndlovu, Hlamulo P; Niken, Adrian; Madonsela, N; Teane, Tshegofatso O; Moodley, Theolan

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) refers to the use of small, electric or hybrid-electric aircraft, often highly automated, designed to transport passengers or goods at low altitudes within urban and suburban environments, which has been developed in response to traffic congestion in the cities. This presentation highlights work that forms part of the International Forum for Aviation Research (IFAR) project titled “Navigating the Skies: A Guide to Certification for Urban Air Mobility”.

Item

Protection motivation theory (PMT) as a driving force for cybersecurity awareness

(2025-07) Veerasamy, Namosha; Mashiane, Charmaine T

Despite the use of various technical controls and technologies, a pivotal weakness in Information Communication Technology (ICT) security remains the human element. Cybersecurity awareness training can be used to influence and change behaviour towards the adoption of secure cyber practices. It is imperative to reduce cybersecurity risks through awareness and cybersecurity training to influence safer behaviour. Various behaviour and motivation theories exist, which attempt to explain how behaviour can be influenced. This paper focuses on the benefits of Protection Motivation Theory in the delivery of security awareness topics. Examples of stakeholders that can be involved in cyber security awareness training are mapped onto the protection motivation theory. This helps to show how PMT can be used in different user environments to effectively communicate cybersecurity awareness at the correct level. This paper proposes the usefulness of applying PMT to the cyber security awareness domain to create a culture of cybersecurity awareness and promote cybersecurity education and awareness.