The impact of time-varying Antarctic stratospheric ozone on southern African summer climate variability is explored through atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM) sensitivity experiments. A control experiment following the design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison project (AMIP) was performed first, generating different ensemble members using a lagged-average forecasting approach. These simulations are shown to be skilful in representing southern African summer-season inter-annual variability. This skill can be improved upon, over the entire southern African region, by replacing the climatological ozone distributions in the AMIP experiment by realistic time-varying ozone concentrations.
Reference:
Engelbrecht, F.A., Ndarana, T., Morioka, Y., Behera, S., Thatcher, M. and McGregor, J.L. 2015. Antarctic stratospheric ozone and seasonal predictability over southern Africa. In: 31st Conference of the South African Society for Atmospheric Science: Applying the weather, Hennops River Valley, Centurion, South Africa, 21-22 September 2015, 20-22
Engelbrecht, F., Ndarana, T., Morioka, Y., Behera, S., Thatcher, M., & McGregor, J. (2015). Antarctic stratospheric ozone and seasonal predictability over southern Africa. SASAS. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/8829
Engelbrecht, FA, T Ndarana, Y Morioka, S Behera, M Thatcher, and JL McGregor. "Antarctic stratospheric ozone and seasonal predictability over southern Africa." (2015): http://hdl.handle.net/10204/8829
Engelbrecht F, Ndarana T, Morioka Y, Behera S, Thatcher M, McGregor J, Antarctic stratospheric ozone and seasonal predictability over southern Africa; SASAS; 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/8829 .
31st Conference of the South African Society for Atmospheric Science: Applying the weather, Hennops River Valley, Centurion, South Africa, 21-22 September 2015
