Ranking seasonal rainfall forecast skill of emerging and developing economies

Abstract

Some of the biggest emerging markets economies include countries in South America, Asia and Africa. In the global south, political and developmental similarities (e.g. climate variability occurring in conjunction with marked developmental challenges) offer opportunities for comparative research and thereby possible societal benefits (e.g. enhanced disaster risk reduction). In fact, countries or geographical regions of the world significantly affected by climate extremes may consider collaboration on issues such as understanding and modelling of the climate system, especially if there is a common dominant and somewhat predictable climate mode such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affecting the climate variability over these regions. Notwithstanding the value of enhanced understanding and preparedness for ENSO, better predictions are not enough to reduce the risks associated with such events. The socio-economic and political context in which forecasts are located also needs to be understood. Here we present seasonal forecast skill over a large number of regions including emerging or developing countries, but also for a small number of developed regions, in order to rank their ENSO-related seasonal rainfall predictability in an attempt to cluster regions of similar predictability. This paper attempts to find out where southern Africa seasonal rainfall predictability ranks with a good number of other countries or regions linked to ENSO so that collaboration may be sought and established.