What's to be done? Report on a bosberaad to discuss the HIV epidemic in South Africa

Abstract

Demographic forecasting models of the South African population, incorporating geographical distribution and age prevalence data on HIV infection, have been used to predict future mortality due to AIDS. In year 2010, approximately 500 000 AIDS-related deaths are predicted, up from 100 000 this year. If anything, these models have underestimated the course of the epidemic so far. There is a need for better models to understand the dynamics of AIDS as well as to measure the effects of co-factors, in order to marshall the most effective response nationally.