dc.contributor.author |
Landman, WA
|
|
dc.contributor.author |
DeWitt, D
|
|
dc.contributor.author |
Beraki, Asmerom F
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|
dc.date.accessioned |
2012-04-18T14:17:58Z |
|
dc.date.available |
2012-04-18T14:17:58Z |
|
dc.date.issued |
2011-01 |
|
dc.identifier.citation |
Landman, WA, DeWitt, D and Beraki, A.F. 2011. South African mid-summer seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Clivar exchanges, vol. 16(1), pp 3-6 |
en_US |
dc.identifier.issn |
1026-0471 |
|
dc.identifier.uri |
http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/177159/1/EXCH55_VAMOS.pdf
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|
dc.identifier.uri |
http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5792
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|
dc.description |
Copyright: 2011 The authors. |
en_US |
dc.description.abstract |
Estimation of the evolution of SST anomalies, which are often relatively predictable, and subsequently employing them in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), provides means of generating forecasts of seasonal-average weather (Graham et al. 2000; Goddard and Mason, 2002). Such a so-called two-tiered procedure to predict the outcome of the rainfall season has been employed in South Africa for a number of years already (e.g., Landman et al., 2001). The advent of fully coupled ocean-atmosphere models (e.g. Stockdale et al, 1998), or one-tiered systems, promised improved seasonal forecasts since in theory coupled models should eventually outperform two-tiered systems because the former is able to describe the feedback between ocean and atmosphere while the latter assumes that the atmosphere responds to SST but does not in turn affect the oceans (Copsey et al., 2006). This notion will be tested here by comparing the seasonal rainfall forecast performance over the mid-summer season of December to February (DJF) of a two-tiered system with forecasts from a fully coupled system. For both the two-tiered and fully coupled systems the same AGCM will be used. |
en_US |
dc.language.iso |
en |
en_US |
dc.publisher |
International CLIVAR Project Office |
en_US |
dc.relation.ispartofseries |
Workflow;8574 |
|
dc.subject |
Seasonal forecasting |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Climate |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Atmospheric general circulation models |
en_US |
dc.subject |
AGCMs |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Rainfall season |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Rainfall predication |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Ocean-atmosphere model |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Seasonal prediction |
en_US |
dc.title |
South African mid-summer seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model |
en_US |
dc.type |
Article |
en_US |
dc.identifier.apacitation |
Landman, W., DeWitt, D., & Beraki, A. F. (2011). South African mid-summer seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5792 |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.chicagocitation |
Landman, WA, D DeWitt, and Asmerom F Beraki "South African mid-summer seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model." (2011) http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5792 |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.vancouvercitation |
Landman W, DeWitt D, Beraki AF. South African mid-summer seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. 2011; http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5792. |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.ris |
TY - Article
AU - Landman, WA
AU - DeWitt, D
AU - Beraki, Asmerom F
AB - Estimation of the evolution of SST anomalies, which are often relatively predictable, and subsequently employing them in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), provides means of generating forecasts of seasonal-average weather (Graham et al. 2000; Goddard and Mason, 2002). Such a so-called two-tiered procedure to predict the outcome of the rainfall season has been employed in South Africa for a number of years already (e.g., Landman et al., 2001). The advent of fully coupled ocean-atmosphere models (e.g. Stockdale et al, 1998), or one-tiered systems, promised improved seasonal forecasts since in theory coupled models should eventually outperform two-tiered systems because the former is able to describe the feedback between ocean and atmosphere while the latter assumes that the atmosphere responds to SST but does not in turn affect the oceans (Copsey et al., 2006). This notion will be tested here by comparing the seasonal rainfall forecast performance over the mid-summer season of December to February (DJF) of a two-tiered system with forecasts from a fully coupled system. For both the two-tiered and fully coupled systems the same AGCM will be used.
DA - 2011-01
DB - ResearchSpace
DP - CSIR
KW - Seasonal forecasting
KW - Climate
KW - Atmospheric general circulation models
KW - AGCMs
KW - Rainfall season
KW - Rainfall predication
KW - Ocean-atmosphere model
KW - Seasonal prediction
LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za
PY - 2011
SM - 1026-0471
T1 - South African mid-summer seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model
TI - South African mid-summer seasonal rainfall prediction performance by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5792
ER -
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en_ZA |