Multi-model analysis of expected future trends in the landfall of tropical systems from the Southwest Indian Ocean over the eastern parts of southern Africa

Abstract

An analysis was performed on the simulations of various Global Circulation Models regarding the change in favourability of broad circulation anomalies in the lower atmosphere for landfall and further westward penetration of tropical systems from the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) over southern Africa as well as the simulated change in the frequencies, tracks and intensities of landfalling low-pressure systems in the context of climate change. The main finding in this regard is that there exists general consensus between various climate simulations that the conditions in future will be more conducive to the landfall and further westward movement of tropical systems from the SWIO. In the light of the contribution by these systems to heavy rainfall events over the area, this could have significant socio-economical implications.