dc.contributor.author |
Landman, WA
|
|
dc.contributor.author |
Beraki, Asmerom F
|
|
dc.date.accessioned |
2012-03-29T12:45:58Z |
|
dc.date.available |
2012-03-29T12:45:58Z |
|
dc.date.issued |
2012-02 |
|
dc.identifier.citation |
Landman, W.A. and Beraki, A.F. 2012. Multi-model forecast skill for mid-summer rainfall over southern Africa. International Journal of Climatology, vol. 32(2), pp 303-314 |
en_US |
dc.identifier.issn |
0899-8418 |
|
dc.identifier.uri |
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.2273/full
|
|
dc.identifier.uri |
http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5701
|
|
dc.description |
Copyright: 2012 Wiley. This is the post-print version of the work. The definitive version is published in International Journal of Climatology, vol. 32, pp 303–314. doi: 10.1002/joc.2273 |
en_US |
dc.description.abstract |
Southern African December-January-February (DJF) probabilistic rainfall forecast skill is assessed over a 22-year retroactive test period (1980/1981 to 2001/2002) by considering multi-model ensembles consisting of downscaled forecasts from three of the DEMETER models, the ECMWF, Meteo-France and UKMO coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. These models are initialized in such a way that DJF forecasts are produced at an approximate 1-month lead time, i.e. forecasts made in early November. Multi-model forecasts are obtained by: i) downscaling each model’s 850 hPa geopotential height field forecast using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and then simply averaging the rainfall forecasts; and ii) by combining the three models’ 850 hPa forecasts, and then downscaling them using CCA. Downscaling is performed onto the 0.5° × 0.5° resolution of the CRU rainfall data set south of 10° south over Africa. Forecast verification is performed using the relative operating characteristic (ROC) and the reliability diagram. The performance of the two multi-model combinations approaches are compared with the single-model downscaled forecasts and also with each other. It is shown that the multi-model forecasts outperform the single model forecasts, that the two multi-model schemes produce about equally skilful forecasts, and that the forecasts perform better during El Nino and La Nina seasons than during neutral years. |
en_US |
dc.language.iso |
en |
en_US |
dc.publisher |
Wiley |
en_US |
dc.relation.ispartofseries |
Workflow;8590 |
|
dc.subject |
Southern Africa rainfall forecast |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Seasonal forecasting |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Climatology |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Probabilistic rainfall forecast skill |
en_US |
dc.subject |
El Nino-Southern Oscillation |
en_US |
dc.subject |
ENSO |
en_US |
dc.title |
Multi-model forecast skill for mid-summer rainfall over southern Africa |
en_US |
dc.type |
Article |
en_US |
dc.identifier.apacitation |
Landman, W., & Beraki, A. F. (2012). Multi-model forecast skill for mid-summer rainfall over southern Africa. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5701 |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.chicagocitation |
Landman, WA, and Asmerom F Beraki "Multi-model forecast skill for mid-summer rainfall over southern Africa." (2012) http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5701 |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.vancouvercitation |
Landman W, Beraki AF. Multi-model forecast skill for mid-summer rainfall over southern Africa. 2012; http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5701. |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.ris |
TY - Article
AU - Landman, WA
AU - Beraki, Asmerom F
AB - Southern African December-January-February (DJF) probabilistic rainfall forecast skill is assessed over a 22-year retroactive test period (1980/1981 to 2001/2002) by considering multi-model ensembles consisting of downscaled forecasts from three of the DEMETER models, the ECMWF, Meteo-France and UKMO coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. These models are initialized in such a way that DJF forecasts are produced at an approximate 1-month lead time, i.e. forecasts made in early November. Multi-model forecasts are obtained by: i) downscaling each model’s 850 hPa geopotential height field forecast using canonical correlation analysis (CCA) and then simply averaging the rainfall forecasts; and ii) by combining the three models’ 850 hPa forecasts, and then downscaling them using CCA. Downscaling is performed onto the 0.5° × 0.5° resolution of the CRU rainfall data set south of 10° south over Africa. Forecast verification is performed using the relative operating characteristic (ROC) and the reliability diagram. The performance of the two multi-model combinations approaches are compared with the single-model downscaled forecasts and also with each other. It is shown that the multi-model forecasts outperform the single model forecasts, that the two multi-model schemes produce about equally skilful forecasts, and that the forecasts perform better during El Nino and La Nina seasons than during neutral years.
DA - 2012-02
DB - ResearchSpace
DP - CSIR
KW - Southern Africa rainfall forecast
KW - Seasonal forecasting
KW - Climatology
KW - Probabilistic rainfall forecast skill
KW - El Nino-Southern Oscillation
KW - ENSO
LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za
PY - 2012
SM - 0899-8418
T1 - Multi-model forecast skill for mid-summer rainfall over southern Africa
TI - Multi-model forecast skill for mid-summer rainfall over southern Africa
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5701
ER -
|
en_ZA |