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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5688

Title: A short-range multi-model ensemble weather prediction system for South Africa
Authors: Landman, S
Engelbrecht, FA
Engelbrecht, CJ
Landman, WA
Dyson, L
Keywords: Multi-models
Short-range weather forecasting
South African weather forecasts
South African Weather Service
SAWS
Weather prediction systems
Issue Date: Sep-2010
Publisher: SASAS
Citation: Landman, S, Engelbrecht, FA, Engelbrecht, CJ, Landman, WA and Dyson, L. A short-range multi-model ensemble weather prediction system for South Africa. 26th Annual South African Society for Atmospheric Sciences Conference, Gariep Dam, Free State, 20-22 September 2010
Series/Report no.: Workflow;8598
Abstract: The objective of this paper is to present the temporal and spatial description of precipitation forecast skill over South Africa from an ensemble of multiple model runs. Numerical forecasts from an experimental short-range multi-model ensemble prediction system (EPS) at the South African Weather Service (SAWS) are examined. The ensemble consists of different forecasts from the 12-km LAM of the UK Met Office Unified Model (UM) and the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) covering the South African domain. The multi-model ensemble consists of six members. The ensemble is simulated over a 0.5º grid for hourly precipitation for the austral summer season of October to March. The ensemble produces skill scores that are generally higher than those of the individual models, therefore providing the evidence that such a system can improve on deterministic rainfall forecasts that currently only uses the output of a single numerical weather model.
Description: 26th Annual South African Society for Atmospheric Sciences Conference, Gariep Dam, Free State, 20-22 September 2010
URI: http://www.sasas.org.za/images/stories/SASAS_2010_Program.pdf
http://hdl.handle.net/10204/5688
ISBN: 978-0-620-47333-0
Appears in Collections:Climate change
General science, engineering & technology

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