The high-resolution global SST forecast set of the CSIR

Abstract

The evolution of global sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies over several months ahead is often relatively predictable. Subsequently employing predicted SST in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) can provide means of generating forecasts of seasonal-average weather. Coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs) have also been increasingly used worldwide for operational seasonal forecast production. Furthermore, coupled models can predict both the evolution of SSTs and atmospheric conditions at elevated levels of skill. However, when skilful SST forecasts are used AGCMs may perform equally well as the current CGCMs and so CGCMs can be used to supply SST forecasts to AGCMs. In this paper a high-resolution retro-active forecast set of global SST anomalies is presented, including verification statistics and the methodology used to generate this multi-decadal set for a number of forecast lead-times.