The 2011 municipal elections in South Africa and new trends since the 2009 national elections

Abstract

The CSIR has been involved in South African election night predictions since 1999 using a cluster prediction model based on the segmentation of the electorate according to voting behavior. In this paper these clusters are exploited in another way. Different clusters are related to different demographic groups, and an analysis is made how these different groups change their affiliation between subsequent elections. The changes in affiliation are determined by calculating a trend matrix, a new tool in elections that was introduced by one of the authors a few years ago. By comparing trend matrices between municipal (2006, 2011) and national elections (2004 and 2009) one can establish whether the observed trends are incidental or have a more generic character. It is felt that a better understanding of the voter behavior through such analyses can enhance the value of elections and thereby promote democracy.