Effect of temporal dependence and seasonality on return level estimates of excessive rainfall

Abstract

Recent concerns over the potential impact of climate change have made governments conscious of the importance of mitigation plans against the harmful effects of natural hazards. This has reinforced the undertaking of initiatives that are geared towards sustainable development. The benefit of such plans depends on understanding regional risk and vulnerability in various domains of societal interest, including water and energy resources, ecology and agriculture. The use of historical data to gain insight into the mechanism of risk events is advancement towards gaining this understanding. Methodologies provided by Extreme Value Theory (EVT) can make a contribution in understanding the mechanistic behaviour of extreme events. In this paper, the author briefly summarizes the theory of extremes, highlighting how temporal dependence and seasonality affect return level estimation through an application to rainfall data.