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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10204/3436

Title: What can we infer from beyond the data? The statistics behind the analysis of risk events in the context of environmental studies
Authors: Khuluse, S
Das, S
Debba, P
Elphinstone, C
Keywords: Environmental studies
Risk events
Probabilistic risk analysis
Fire danger indices
Statistical analysis
African Digital Scholarship & Curation 2009
Extreme value theory
McArthur fire danger index
Issue Date: Apr-2009
Citation: Khuluse, S, Das, S, Debba, P and Elphinstone, C. 2009. What can we infer from beyond the data? The statistics behind the analysis of risk events in the context of environmental studies. African Digital Scholarship & Curation 2009, Pretoria, South Africa, 12-14 May 2009, pp 32
Abstract: When events occur outside the range of acceptable fluctuations, they may result in either (a) the events being more favourable than usual, or (b) the events being less favourable than usual. The latter has serious implications if their occurrences trigger a chain of subsequent negative events. Such events are termed `risk events'. Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is a tool that attempts to best estimate the probability of adversarial risk events. There are several environmental studies where extreme value methods have been used. In this paper, the behaviour of very high levels of the McArthur Fire Danger Index (FDI) at four sites in the Kruger National Park is described using the threshold exceedance approach in EVT. There is particular interest in whether there is dependence at high levels of the FDI series, seasonality and trend at each site. The authors will review how the model for threshold excesses, the Generalized Pareto distribution, has to be modified to incorporate these features and the effect this has on the parameter estimates
Description: African Digital Scholarship & Curation 2009, Pretoria, South Africa, 12-14 May 2009
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10204/3436
Appears in Collections:Logistics and quantitative methods
General science, engineering & technology

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