Probability and risk criteria for channel depth design and channel operation

Abstract

The paper reviews the various levels of probability of bottom touching and risk criteria which are being used. This leads to a relationship between the statistically expected number of vertical ship motions in the channel during a single shipping event and the probability of bottom touching. In the long term, by using the shipping intensity, the probability of bottom touching during a number of years can be determined using a Poisson distribution. This approach may be carried out for all weather and shipping conditions or for selected extreme sea state and ship conditions only (as would be the case for ship allowance). The paper provides guidelines on choosing a correct level of risk and of the related probability of bottom or bank touching for channel design and operation