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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10204/2732

Title: Theory of quantitative trend analysis and its application to the South African elections
Authors: Greben, JM
Keywords: Quantitative trend analysis
Elections trends
Trend matrix
Election results
South Africa
Issue Date: 28-Feb-2006
Citation: Greben, JM. 2006. Theory of quantitative trend analysis and its application to the South African elections. CSIR Research and Innovation Conference: 1st CSIR Biennial Conference, CSIR International Convention Centre Pretoria, 27-28 February 2006, pp 15
Abstract: In this paper the author discusses a quantitative theory of trend analysis. Often trends are based on qualitative considerations and subjective assumptions. In the current approach the author makes use of extensive data bases to optimise the so-called trend matrix. The theory is applied to the South African elections. The record of election results in allvoting districts for subsequent elections can be used to give a reliable estimate of the election trends. These results can then be compared to less data-intensive methods, which partially rely on common sense assumptions and on readily available subset(s) of election results. We analyse the validity and appropriateness of these simplified assumptions. We also discuss how these techniques can be used in other circumstances, for example in the field of marketing
Description: CSIR Research and Innovation Conference: 1st CSIR Biennial Conference, CSIR International Convention Centre Pretoria, 27-28 February 2006
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10204/2732
Appears in Collections:Accessibility research
CSIR Conference 2006
General science, engineering & technology

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