Analysis of potential coastal zone climate change impacts and possible response options in the southern African region

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to consider physical coastal zone impacts due to expected climate change in the Namibia, South Africa and Mozambique coastal region, and to provide some mitigating response options. The primary effects of climate change in the coastal zone are discussed, e.g. potential modification in storminess and sea level rise. The latest sea level rise projections, accelerated sea level rise, and applicability to southern Africa are reviewed. Estimates are presented of extreme inshore sea water levels. Potential changes in local wave conditions and sediment transports are explored. Some issues associated with thresholds and complexities of coastal processes and effects are identified. How impacts will vary depending on diversity of the coastline is discussed. This is also linked to the resilience afforded by certain natural features and processes. Some of the most vulnerable areas and local issues are identified in Namibia, South Africa and Mozambique. Possible responses and guidelines to mitigate climate change impacts are presented, including some coastal management and development guidelines