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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10204/2530

Title: Risk-based approach to assessing climate impacts
Authors: Das, S
Khuluse, S
Elphinstone, C
Keywords: Catastrophic natural disasters
Global climate conditions
Climate
Risk
Issue Date: Nov-2008
Publisher: CSIR
Citation: Das, S, Khuluse, S and Elphinstone, C. 2008. Risk-based approach to assessing climate impacts. Science real and relevant: 2nd CSIR Biennial Conference, CSIR International Convention Centre Pretoria, 17&18 November 2008, pp 9
Abstract: In recent years, the frequency of catastrophic natural disasters worldwide has brought to the fore the possibility that these could be the result of changes in the global climate conditions. It is further anticipated that by the end of this century the occurrence of natural disasters will intensify, rendering regions such as Africa more vulnerable to the impacts of a changing climate. In this paper, we develop a framework for risk assessment associated with the phenomenon of climate change. We delve into what we mean by ‘risk’, and into statistical techniques that build probabilistic models to capture the behaviour of rare events. These models are aimed at providing reliable and quantifiable estimates of the parameters associated with the occurrence of risk events, which can be used to quantify, in probabilistic terms, their future patterns. Thus, such models provide a means of attaching a value to the risk event of concern, which can be helpful for prioritizing intervention strategies. We discuss risk assessment methods within the context of climate change in five selected southern African domains, namely, coastal infrastructure, west coast fisheries, ground water recharge, wildfires and climate regulation services provided by terrestrial ecosystems. We perform a quantitative risk assessment on the sea-level data from a specific location on the Durban coast as a case study for illustration purposes
Description: Science real and relevant: 2nd CSIR Biennial Conference, CSIR International Convention Centre Pretoria, 17&18 November 2008
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10204/2530
ISBN: 9780798855730
Appears in Collections:Climate change
Environmental and resource economics
Logistics and quantitative methods
Coastal and marine systems
CSIR Conference 2008
General science, engineering & technology

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