Prediction of the 2004 national elections in South Africa

Abstract

During the last three elections in South Africa, the CSIR was involved in the prediction of the final outcome on the basis of early results. In this paper, we describe the methods used by the CSIR in these elections and comment on the success of the model used. We compare the rate of convergence of our predictions towards the final results with the convergence of the actual results. We also comment on the special challenges and time pressures faced by a research team when it uses a scientific analysis tool in a real-time context. The performance of the system is determined by its ability to deliver accurate predictions at an early stage, since interest in predictions diminishes rapidly as the outcome becomes clear. In the event, our predictions proved to be very accurate and our forecasts played a vital role in the ability of the national broadcaster to 'call' the election in the hours after the voting stations closed.