Statistics of utility-scale power generation in South Africa H1-2021

Abstract

This presentation summarize the H1-2021 statistics: A difficult first half of 2021 as extensive loadshedding continued but record relative VRE contributions and diesel usage was recorded. By H1-2021 South Africa had 52.6 GW of wholesale/public nominal capacity. The electricity mix is dominated by coal-fired power generation which contributed 83.5% to system demand in H1-2021. In H1-2021, system demand increased by 5.4 TWh relative H1-2020 (5.0%) but was 2.5 TWh less than that experienced in H1-2019 (-2.2%). In H1-2021, the VRE fleet of 5.3 GW (wind, solar PV, CSP) reduced peak demand slightly but more importantly high demand hours by ~65% Flexibility needs are not yet significantly increased with the existing VRE fleet in H1-2021. In H1-2021, loadshedding occurred for 650 hours (15% of the time) with an upper limit of 1284 GWh relative to actual energy shed of 963 GWh. Eskom fleet EAF declining trend continues and drove loadshedding events in H1-2021 with specific concerns surrounding UCLF trends.