Implementing a GIS based methodology for determining highly vulnerable rural access roads to a changing climate in Ethiopia

Abstract

Climate-related natural disasters have been steadily increasing in both incidence and intensity across the globe over the last century. This is especially true for Ethiopia given the country’s high and recurrent exposure to extreme droughts and floods, the two most notorious disasters that have impacted on the country’s development trajectory and the livelihoods of its citizens. Climate-related risks are the major driver of hunger and food insecurity in Ethiopia, with the majority of poor communities being most vulnerable to their impacts. Due to the high degree of food and water insecurity caused partially by climate variability, it is argued that improved rural accessibility is vital to reducing the number of highly vulnerable communities, and increasing rural resilience. In this paper, a geospatial indicator-based risk and vulnerability assessment method was applied as a tool for determining rural access roads that are highly vulnerable to changing climate in Ethiopia. The assessment is intended to help guide, through prioritisation, the identification of highly vulnerable areas where appropriate climate adaptation measures would be most effective in reducing the impacts of climate variability and change. The research methodology relies on using GIS processes and spatial data to calculate a composite vulnerability index, the combined output of a hazard exposure index as well as a road criticality index, for identifying regions most at risk. It was found that almost half of Ethiopia’s districts, mostly in the Awash River Basin and southern Somali lowlands, are highly vulnerable to a changing climate in terms of the impact on rural accessibility. The paper further elaborates on the processes used to identify major climate hazards affecting roads in Ethiopia as well as open source data sets used in this analysis. The methodology was validated through an elaborate stakeholder engagement process and was found to be an accurate, efficient and effective way of identifying high-risk regions in terms of community dependence on roads for accessibility and the physical impact of climate on road infrastructure in Ethiopia.