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Browsing by Author "Holloway, Jennifer P"

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The 2011 municipal elections in South Africa and new trends since the 2009 national elections

Author: Greben, JM ; Elphinstone, CD ; Holloway, Jennifer P Date: Sep 2011 The CSIR has been involved in South African election night predictions since 1999 using a cluster prediction model based on the segmentation of the electorate according to voting behavior. In this paper these clusters are exploited in another ... Read more
2014 Election forecast - a post-election analysis

Author: Ittmann, HW ; Holloway, Jennifer P ; Dudeni-Tlhone, Nontembeko Date: Jun 2017 General elections are held every five years in South Africa. During the 12 to 24 hour period after the close of the voting booths, the expected final results are of huge interest to the electorate and politicians. In the past, the Council for ... Read more
Accessibility, affordability, and equity in long-term spatial planning: Perspectives from a developing country

Author: Van Heerden, Quintin ; Karsten, Carike ; Holloway, Jennifer P ; Petzer, Engela ; Burger, Paul AD ; Mans, Gerbrand G Date: May 2022 City planners attempt to create more equitable spaces by providing and improving access to benefits of living in cities, especially for previously disadvantaged urban communities. To this extent, evidence-based decision making is required to ... Read more
The applicability of the South African census 2011 data for evidence-based urban planning

Author: Khuluse-Makhanya, Sibusisiwe ; Dudeni-Tlhone, Nontembeko ; Holloway, Jennifer P ; Schmitz, P ; Waldeck, Louis ; Stein, A ; Debba, Pravesh ; Stylianides, Theo ; Du Plessis, Pierre ; Cooper, Antony K ; Baloyi, Ethel Date: Jun 2016 In urban planning it is important to understand settlements in terms of demographic, socio-economic, physical and political environmental characteristics. The objective is often to support municipalities, regional and national governments ... Read more
An application of the Autoregressive Conditional Poisson (ACP) model

Author: Holloway, Jennifer P ; Haines, L ; Leask, K Date: Nov 2010 When modelling count data that comes in the form of a time series, the static Poisson regression and standard time series models are often not appropriate. A current study therefore involves the evaluation of several observation-driven and ... Read more
Clustering of housing and household patterns using 2011 population census

Author: Dudeni-Tlhone, N ; Holloway, Jennifer P ; Khuluse, S ; Koen, Renée Date: Nov 2013 This study looked at a specific application of cluster analysis using the recently released population census 2011 data for the Ekurhuleni Metro in the Gauteng Province of South Africa. The main focus of the clustering was to distinguish ... Read more
Comparison of various modelling approaches applied to cholera case data

Author: Van Den Bergh, F ; Holloway, Jennifer P ; Pienaar, M ; Koen, Renée ; Elphinstone, CD ; Woodborne, S Date: Jun 2008 The application of a methodology that proposes the use of spectral methods to inform the development of statistical forecasting models for cholera case data is explored in this paper. The seasonal behaviour of the target variable (cholera ... Read more
Could the outcome of the 2016 US elections have been predicted from past voting patterns?

Author: Schmitz, P ; Holloway, Jennifer P ; Dudeni-Tlhone, Nontembeko ; Ntlangu, Mbulelo B ; Koen, Renée Date: Jul 2017 In South Africa, a team of analysts has for some years been using statistical techniques to predict election outcomes during election nights in South Africa. The prediction method involves using statistical clusters based on past voting ... Read more
From SA to the USA: Election forecasting

Author: Holloway, Jennifer P ; Ittmann, HW ; Dudeni-Tlhone, Nontembeko ; Schmitz, P Date: 2018 Elections draw enormous interest worldwide, especially if these involve major countries, and there is much speculation in the media as to possible outcomes from these elections. In many of these recent elections, such as the UK and USA, ... Read more
Getting to grips with election night forecasting: Predicting the unpredictable world of politics

Author: Holloway, Jennifer P ; Ittmann, H ; Greben, J ; Elphinstone, C ; Schmitz, P ; de Villiers, R ; Zaid, K Date: 23 Apr 2009 As soon as the election results start coming in, a team of seven CSIR researchers will get to work to do election night forecasting. These scientists will use statistical modelling based on the first actual voting results that are received ... Read more
Integrated land use and transportation modelling and planning: A South African journey

Author: Waldeck, Louis ; Van Heerden, Quintin ; Holloway, Jennifer P Date: Oct 2020 Confronted by poverty, income disparities and mounting demands for basic services such as clean water, sanitation and health care, urban planners in developing countries like South Africa, face daunting challenges. This paper explores the ... Read more
Integrating land-cover data with data on population and household characteristics to assess densification along the BRT route in the City of Tshwane

Author: Dudeni-Tlhone, Nontembeko ; Petzer, Engela ; Gxumisa, Athi A ; Holloway, Jennifer P ; Makhanya, Sibusisiwe A Date: Jul 2018 This paper is centred on an investigation of whether the integrating earth observation and census data can result in useful information to support transport planning and monitoring. In particular circular buffers with radii of 500 m were ... Read more
Model for election night forecasting applied to the 2004 South African elections

Author: Greben, JM ; Elphinstone, E ; Holloway, Jennifer P Date: Jun 2006 A novel model has been developed to predict elections on the basis of early results. The electorate is clustered according to their behaviour in previous elections. Early results in the new elections can then be translated into voter behaviour ... Read more
Modelling representative population mobility for COVID-19 spatial transmission in South Africa

Author: Potgieter, A ; Fabris-Rotelli, IN ; Kimmie, N ; Dudeni-Tlhone, Nontembeko ; Holloway, Jennifer P ; Janse van Rensburg, C ; Thiede, R ; Debba, Pravesh ; Manjoo-Docrat, R ; Abdelatif, N ; Makhanya, S Date: Oct 2021 The COVID-19 pandemic starting in the first half of 2020 has changed the lives of everyone across the world. Reduced mobility was essential due to it being the largest impact possible against the spread of the little understood SARS-CoV-2 ... Read more
Prediction of the 2004 national elections in South Africa

Author: Greben, JM ; Elphinstone, C ; Holloway, Jennifer P ; De Villiers, R ; Ittmann, HW ; Schmitz, P Date: Mar 2005 During the last three elections in South Africa, the CSIR was involved in the prediction of the final outcome on the basis of early results. In this paper, we describe the methods used by the CSIR in these elections and comment on the success ... Read more
A spatial model with vaccinations for COVID-19 in South Africa

Author: Dresselhaus, C ; Fabris-Rotelli, I ; Manjoo-Docrat, R ; Brettenny, W ; Holloway, Jennifer P ; Abdelatif, N ; Thiede, R ; Debba, Pravesh ; Dudeni-Tlhone, Nontembeko Date: Dec 2023 Since the emergence of the novel COVID-19 virus pandemic in December 2019, numerous mathematical models were published to assess the transmission dynamics of the disease, predict its future course, and evaluate the impact of different control ... Read more
A spatial SEIR model for COVID-19 in South Africa

Author: Fabris-Rotelli, I ; Holloway, Jennifer P ; Kimmie, Z ; Archibald, S ; Debba, Pravesh ; Manjoo-Docrat, R ; Le Roux, Alize ; Dudeni-Tlhone, Nontembeko ; Van Rensburg, CJ ; Thiede, R Date: Nov 2022 The virus SARS-CoV-2 has resulted in numerous modelling approaches arising rapidly to understand the spread of the disease COVID-19 and to plan for future interventions. Herein, we present an SEIR model with a spatial spread component as well ... Read more

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